A brief thought on fleet/ship threats

This is more of a framework for a thought exercise than anything else.  This is mildly applicable to solo work, some of the concepts should be easily applicable but the bulk of this is aimed at small gangs where individual piloting decisions can make a significant difference.

There's two threat considerations:  threats to the fleet and threats to the individual.  This can be ascertained by the engagement profiles of the fleet.

Take the nano gang that excels at ranged engagements by virtue of superior speed, damage projection and control via bonuses webs.  A significant threat to the fleet would be opposing Huginns, Rapiers and fast tackle.  Milder threats would be tracking disruption (if turret based).  A personal threat might be the fast tackle frigate that's just waiting for someone to be burning at a Huginn.  Other ships with inferior damage projection can be ignored for the time being as they cannot harm the nano gangs ships.

The gang full of brawling ships should similarly be wary of chasing a longer ranged gang that has bonuses webs.

The use of EWAR plays into this role as well.  Damps can be used offensively on opposing logistics ships to either lower their lock range or increase their lock time.  Defensive uses would be against those web range bonused ships or tracking disruption ships.

Lowsec Industry, Part 1

Note:  I am going to break this topic up into a series of shorter posts in order to actually get stuff out in a reasonable time frame over trying to make one large post about it.

Sugar Kyle over at www.lowseclifestyle.com had an interesting post on lowsec industry.  This is not a new problem.  The wonderful folks over at Failheap Challenge recently had a discussion over the lack of nullsec industry based off an infographic showing that the majority of industry (unsurprisingly) occurs in highsec.

Lowsec does not exist in a vacuum, it competes with highsec and (to a lesser extent) nullsec.  Even then there are systems that are "better" than others for industry.  So in an effort to be thorough I shall by taking a mildly comprehensive look at science and industry as a whole.

The short answer is:  it's easier and far simpler to build things for sale in highsec.  There is little reason to build things in lowsec unless it's something that absolutely cannot be done in highsec ie, carriers and dreadnaughts. 

Part of that is the freedom to shoot things in lowsec without direct ship destruction via concord also means the freedom to shoot (or not) the ships that have the potential to build the ships and modules that do the shooting in the first place, ie, it's a social problem that has potential social fixes.  Social fixes that are unfortunately not implemented with significant regularity for a variety of reasons.  In other words the only thing stopping a player in a combat ship from shooting the mining barge happily chewing rocks at a lowsec belt is the combat ship pilot.

There's a significant volume of materials that go into building things.  Those materials are moved vastly simpler in highsec (lower barrier to entry).

Finished products (notably ships) also have volume that make moving goods difficult in lowsec.

The exception to the above is building things for sale in the same system.  While perfectly viable, sales in lowsec generally tend to be on the low side of build able items and rarely enough demand to justify it.  A wide variety of goods are required for a lowsec trade hub and not all of them can be built (as it's rare someone would want to buy a half fit ship).  Simply buying in Jita, transporting to a lowsec trade hub via jump freighter and selling at a mark up has been proven to be sufficient to meet lowsec market demands.

Markets themselves are an important part of the discussion along with various market costs (transportation costs most notably).

FW space also has an element of economic warfare for anything placed on the open market is vulnerable to being bought out by opposing militia and relisted at higher cost which is counterproductive if the goal is to supply friendly militia.  This leads to using corp contracts for fitted ships.

The market side of things is by far a deeper subject to hop into and at risk of having babbled long enough, I'll save the rest for a full post on the subject.

Tangent:  A comment on Sugars blog was a link to this experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huffaker%27s_mite_experiment.  The point that I took away from it is that "prey" must have effective options to survive, otherwise the predators hunt the prey into extinction followed shortly by their own extinction for lack of fold.  This obviously isn't quite accurate for Eve Online as there are people who continue to travel through Ossogur into Amamake, or Rancer.  I'd like to think that's a decision someone would make only once, but there are repeat customers to the smartbomb/instalock party.  Having said that, lowsec survival in a noncombat or PvE fitted ship tends to be a very binary proposition:  either one is mostly safe with preventive options or one is tackled and likely to lose said ship.  I'm not sure there's much middle ground save doing DED sites in a PvP ship or group.

The Cult of T2

"Better to have a fight and lost than to not have fought at all".

My experiments with the T1/meta fit destroyers have gone well.  I've managed to bag a few kills while outnumbered with them, fleeted up with a couple buddies and had a blast not thinking much about the odds, simply being content with having an engagement and potentially bagging a couple kills in the process.

The impression I get from from other pilots has been generally "T2 guns or GTFO".  CCPs general balancing revolves around "linear increase in power for exponential cost" and T2 is a prime example of it:  it's a roughly 50% increase in raw DPS and T2 ammo flexibility (which may not even be a factor) for sometimes well over 100x the cost of T1/meta weapons.

My rationale for T1 fits are simple:

1). I'm not thinking much about taking an engagement where my ship is destroyed.  For 3-4m a pop and 0.5m back from insurance I can happily take many potential engagements where I would've hesitated with a 10m fit.

2). I feel that when fighting solo I tend to lose from simply bringing a rock to fight paper, in which case I lose almost without exception and T2 wouldn't have made a difference.  In which case all I'm doing is throwing isk away.  Other losses occur from simply being outnumbered by backup, in which case again the likelihood of the extra DPS from T2 guns allowing me to kill more than one, or even getting a kill at all, are slim and not worth throwing isk at.

3). Fleet fights almost always result in loss, moreso in a high DPS environment. Better to lose a 3m ship and not think twice about grabbing another to was out again.  If my fleet outcomps the other, then T2 wouldn't have mattered much either.

4). Stockpiling is cheap.  One JF can hold ~60 thrashers plus fitting and ammo.  It can either be a 180m or 600m load.  Figure 50m for transportation costs and I can have 3 times as much fun with T1 fits over T2.

Now, it's one thing to do it for shits and giggles on my own.  When I was in militia driving off combat plexers where they had a clear numbers advantage was something I hesitated with when it was T2 fit ships and their associated costs.  With 3m thrashers that I can happily throw at plexers, through sheer attrition I can drive them off which is fulfilling the objective of keeping my system my own.

Objective Based PvP

I've been debating signing back up to the Minmatar militia.  Part of it is to have a reason to undock and engage.  Purposeless slaughter only goes so far, and by being a militia target, I give opposition even more reason to engage me.

I would, of course, bring my particular philosophy to objective engagements:  fly cheap, fly better, and bleed the enemy dry.  When I risk a 3m ship to destroy a 20-40m one, I demoralize the enemy when I win and give them no satisfaction when I lose.

AAR: Frerstorn 21Jan14

System:  Frerstorn

Time:  0100UTC 21Jan14

Location: Novice Plex
Battle Summary:  http://eve-kill.net/?a=kill_related&kll_id=21494702

The fit:

[Republic Fleet Firetail, Firetail]
Gyrostabilizer II
Nanofiber Internal Structure II
Pseudoelectron Containment Field I

Limited 1MN Microwarpdrive I
Medium Shield Extender II
J5b Phased Prototype Warp Scrambler I
X5 Prototype Engine Enervator

150mm Light AutoCannon II, Republic Fleet Phased Plasma S
150mm Light AutoCannon II, Republic Fleet Phased Plasma S
Rocket Launcher II, Scourge Rage Rocket

Small Anti-EM Screen Reinforcer I
Small Anti-Thermal Screen Reinforcer I
Small Anti-Kinetic Screen Reinforcer I

I'd located myself about 60km off the beacon inside the plex.  Petrus Blackshell and Basker Melkan warped in.  Questions about parental sexuality was exchanged in local.  I confirmed both had autocannons fitted.  I waited until both Rifters were confirmed to have MWDs as they burned towards me, Petrus about 20km ahead of Basker.

Petrus and I tackled each other nearly simultaneously and exchanged weapons fire.  In a few seconds Basker closed and applied his tackle to me.  As Basker closed to zero, Petrus pulled range.

I attempted to switch tackle and DPS to Basker, but I learned that right clicking and hit approach did not switch the active target, so when I hit F1-F4 I was still applying tackle and firing at Petrus.  This happened about two or three times before I actually switched my gunfire to Basker.  Within a few seconds of doing so, Basker pulled range and Petrus closed back in.  I was still comfortably above 50% shields.

I properly switched back to Petrus and destroyed his ship.  At this point I was low on shields and decided to make an attempt at the second Rifter, knowing I was going to be faster and almost certainy have more DPS.  I closed with Basker and overheated.  Baskers ship exploded as I was entering half structure.

Gf's were exchanged in local.  In the Rifterlings chat channel, Petrus lamented that he had selected Fusion ammo for the one time he ends up fighting a shield Firetail.

Their fits:

[Rifter, Petrus Blackshell's Rifter] Emergency Damage Control I Adaptive Nano Plating I 200mm Reinforced Rolled Tungsten Plates I Limited 1MN Microwarpdrive I J5b Phased Prototype Warp Scrambler I X5 Prototype Engine Enervator 200mm Light Gallium Machine Gun,Republic Fleet Fusion S 200mm Light Gallium Machine Gun,Republic Fleet Fusion S 200mm Light Gallium Machine Gun,Republic Fleet Fusion S 'Limos' Rocket Launcher I,Caldari Navy Scourge Rocket Small Projectile Burst Aerator I Small Projectile Collision Accelerator I

[Rifter, Basker Melkan's Rifter] Damage Control II Adaptive Nano Plating II 200mm Reinforced Rolled Tungsten Plates I Limited 1MN Microwarpdrive I J5b Phased Prototype Warp Scrambler I X5 Prototype Engine Enervator 200mm AutoCannon II,Barrage S 200mm AutoCannon II,Barrage S 200mm AutoCannon II,Barrage S 'Limos' Rocket Launcher I,Caldari Navy Nova Rocket [empty rig slot]

Notes:

1) I screwed up switching targets.  If I had done so properly the engagement would not have been as close.

2) I commend the two pilots for dipping in and out of close range as I switched targets to apply more DPS.  Though my target switching was bad, this might have actually contributed to destroying the two Rifters faster as I had DPS superiority up close.

3) I failed to bring Barrage ammo, though I do not believe I would have either used it or swapped to it mid engagement.

4) The two Rifters both had relatively low tanks.  When I remarked to Petrus that a 400mm plate would fit easily with downgraded guns and a mild fitting change, he scoffed at the notion of downgrading guns.

5) My EHP difference between Fusion and Phased Plasma ammo is not significant, a couple hundred EHP at most.  EMP on the other hand would've shaved off a significant chunk of EHP.  However given the Firetails potential to be either shield or armour fit, Phased Plasma should be the default short range ammunition choice unless killboard history suggests that I only fly one kind of fit.

6) An artillery shield Firetail achieves similar tank levels and better damage projection but has worse tracking and vulnerable to being out tracked if double webbed as this engagement played out.  Though speeds are significantly lower if it involves scrammed and webbed MWD frigates, I suspect the poorer tracking on artillery would still be an issue and therefore not a viable option.